What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for Alachua County, with the two payment flows kept separate and the capital comparison stated explicitly.
- State A is not stable. The gate rate steps 56.7% in 2029 and rises further across the five years after that, and the County still carries transfer-station operation and a 40-mile haul on top.
- State B at Phase Initial: $14.60M a year in Beneficiation Fee, against $17.52M a year in Circular Royalty™ from Year 2 — two independent gross flows, reported separately.
- Zero County capital at every phase, against a Balu Forest programme that needs at least five years and is funded by the County.
Alachua County
Economic Impact Report
The counterfactual is not today’s $30 a ton — it is $47 a ton from 2029, or a County-funded landfill at Balu Forest.
State A — the current system, carried forward
Alachua County operates a transfer-and-haul system. There is no active MSW landfill in the county. The residual is consolidated at Leveda Brown and hauled to Raiford, and the County carries three costs: transfer-station operation, transport, and the gate rate.
In FY2021 the County and its municipalities spent $13.8M in tipping fees to dispose of 246,000 tons — an all-in cost of roughly $56 a ton against a $30 gate. The non-gate component was therefore around $26 a ton.
The gate rate moves to $47 a ton in 2029. Holding the non-gate component flat, the County’s all-in cost lands near $73 a ton, before the further increases the agreement contemplates across the following five years.
State A is stated as the County’s own cost of its own system. It is not a Carbotura figure and is not adjusted.
State B — Advanced Circular Manufacturing under a CSA
In State B the County delivers the same stream to a facility on the Eco Industrial Park site and pays a Beneficiation Fee of $100 a ton, escalating 2.5% a year. That is above the County’s State A cost in every year of the model, and this report does not present it otherwise.
Separately and independently, Carbotura pays the County a Circular Royalty™ on the same delivered tonnage, beginning 13 months after the first Beneficiation Fee payment, at 120% of that year’s fee and rising one percentage point a year, uncapped.
| Year | Beneficiation Fee ($/ton) | Annual Beneficiation Fee ($M) | Royalty multiplier | Circular Royalty™ ($/ton) | Annual Circular Royalty™ ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (pre-royalty) | $100.00 | $14.60 | — | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Year 1 (from Month 13) | $100.00 | $14.60 | 120% | $120.00 | $17.52 |
| Year 2 | $102.50 | $14.97 | 121% | $124.03 | $18.11 |
| Year 5 | $110.38 | $16.12 | 124% | $136.87 | $19.98 |
| Year 10 | $124.89 | $18.23 | 129% | $161.10 | $23.52 |
| Year 20 | $159.87 | $23.34 | 139% | $222.21 | $32.44 |
| Year 30 | $204.64 | $29.88 | 149% | $304.91 | $44.52 |
| 30-year gross | — | ~$641M | — | — | ~$874M |
Phase Initial, 146,000 TPY. Accrual basis throughout: Year n carries Mₙ × BFₙ. The two columns are independent gross flows and are never netted. Figures ILLUSTRATIVE.
The capital comparison
The comparison that matters is not only per-ton. Every State A path requires the County to fund something.
| Path | County capital | Lead time | Per-ton trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renew the haul contract | None directly | Immediate | $47/ton from 2029, rising further |
| Balu Forest — new County landfill | County-funded | At least 5 years | County-controlled, County-financed |
| Advanced Circular Manufacturing | $0 at every phase | 24 months to COD | $100/ton fee; royalty from $120/ton, escalating |
Carbotura’s Phase Initial is a $240M facility — $75M for the first module and $55M for each of three additional modules. That is Carbotura capital. The County commits none at any phase.
Employment and local economic impact
Phase Initial supports approximately 100 direct full-time roles at the facility, rising to roughly 150 at Phase Medium and 200 at Phase Expanded. These are manufacturing roles — process operation, maintenance, quality, logistics — not collection or disposal roles.
County officials have publicly projected that the Eco Industrial Park as a whole could support over 500 jobs across all tenants. Carbotura’s Phase Initial is one tenant within that.
Employment figures are ESTIMATED from the standard per-TPD baseline, not from a county economic study.
What could make this wrong
Stream composition. The residential/commercial/C&D/biosolids split is ESTIMATED. No published county characterisation study was located. A Waste Characterization Study during the Term Sheet phase is the control.
Phase Expanded sizing. 800 TPD exceeds the 714 TPD verified residual and assumes C&D capture and peak-day volume. It is shown for completeness and should not be read as contracted capacity.
The 2029 trajectory. The $47/ton figure is VERIFIED; the “further increases over the following five years” are described but not individually quantified in the sources reviewed, so State A beyond 2029 is directionally certain and numerically approximate.
Exogenesis™. Nothing about the Archer closed cells is quantified. It is a candidate, gated on a study.
Appendix A — Basis of presentation
All financial figures USD, ILLUSTRATIVE until Term Sheet execution. Beneficiation Fee $100/ton is a programme specification at the floor of the $100–150/ton range. Circular Royalty™ computed under the Release 31 formula: the multiplier applies to the current-year escalated Beneficiation Fee, not to a frozen Year-1 base. Accrual basis stated and kept throughout; no table mixes bases. Accounting standard: US GAAP / GASB. Tonnage VERIFIED from the County’s 2024 FDEP report. Gate rates and the 2028 expiry VERIFIED. FY2021 all-in cost VERIFIED as a historical figure; the current-year all-in is ESTIMATED and is not modelled.
Gross cost displacement is negative at the modelled fee and is not claimed anywhere in this report. The Beneficiation Fee and the Circular Royalty™ are independent transactions and appear only as separate gross lines.
Appendix B — Sources
- Alachua County Solid Waste & Resource Recovery — Leveda Brown Environmental Park & Transfer Station
- Alachua County 2024 FDEP solid waste management report
- New River Solid Waste Association — disposal agreement terms as reported to the Board
- Alachua County Eco Industrial Park — Request for Information, scope of work
- Alachua County Board of County Commissioners — future landfill options discussion
- WUFT, April 2026 — transfer-station throughput reporting